THE FORGOTTEN VULNERABILITY
Gianluca Valensise, Gabriele Tarabusi, Emanuela Guidoboni and Graziano Ferrari.
doi: https://doi.org/10.13127/CFTI/FV
The 2016-2017 Central Italy earthquakes have shown that the local seismic risk is
dominated by the extreme vulnerability of the building stock. We attempt to rank the vulnerability
of
Apennines' settlements based on a combined geological-historical approach. We first discuss the
reasons
of the apparent paradox caused by the very different seismic response of Amatrice and Norcia, both
strongly hit by the 24 August 2016 earthquake (Mw 6.0). Based on the awareness that strong
earthquakes
force building reconstructions and changes in the individual and societal perception of seismic
risk, we
assume that the global vulnerability of Italian settlements increases with time since the last
significant earthquake. We focus on the very active seismogenic areas straddling Italy's Apennines.
We
then use data on the local seismogenic sources and earthquake history to (1) select the
municipalities
that are more likely to suffer from destructive ground shaking, and (2) rank them as a function of
the
time elapsed since the latest earthquake, i.e. in terms of increasing vulnerability. We hence
identified
716 municipalities, totaling about 5% of the Italian population, over 50% of which have not
experienced
destructive shaking since 1861, when the Kingdom of Italy reunited a number of smaller states. As
such
they are primary candidates to a poor performance in future significant earthquakes (Mw > 5.5) and
should be given priority in any statewide vulnerability reduction plan. All results and
elaborations,
including the seismic histories of each of the selected localities, are also supplied in this
specifically designed web-GIS.
Supplementary material for Valensise G., Tarabusi G., Guidoboni E., Ferrari G.
(2017), The forgotten
vulnerability: A geology- and history-based approach for ranking the seismic risk of
earthquake-prone communities of the Italian Apennines
doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.09.014
download data in
XLS or
CSV
format
The CFTIvulenerability web interface has been designed and developed by Gabriele Tarabusi with the contribution of Gioele Foschi (2026 UNIBO internship) for the creation of the map functionalities in OpenLayers (https://openlayers.org/) and redesign
INFO: gabriele.tarabusi@ingv.it
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